MIRI TGT argued that catching up to a given capability level gets cheaper by roughly 60× per year. Re-run the analysis with newer models and test how robust that number is.
The MIRI team describes this post as roughly the minimum standard of rigour they expect. The figure also affects how quickly export controls lose their effect.
Output: A replication note with updated estimates.
Read the original work and write down the exact claim you will test.
Get the code or setup running on the smallest possible version.
Reproduce one key result before changing anything.
Change one thing — that is your extension — and compare carefully.
Write up what matched, what did not, and why you think so.
All steps done
Share what you made, then try another project. The PDF version has room for notes.
Could algorithmic progress continue under a compute halt? Catalogue the innovations in a major model paper and estimate the compute used in the experiments behind each, extending published MIRI TGT work.
Export controls target data-centre chips. But consumer hardware keeps getting better, and frontier-level performance reaches it within about a year. Update the analysis with the latest hardware.
Download Epoch AI’s free dataset of notable AI models, chart training compute over time in Python, estimate how fast it grows, and count how many models cross the EU AI Act’s compute threshold.
